Quebec election season is right around the corner, and this campaign is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Political observers have compared the current race to the 2007 election, when Jean Charest’s Liberals held on to power in a fractured National Assembly ahead of Mario Dumont’s Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ) and André Boisclair’s Parti Québécois.
Here on the North Shore, many familiar faces are once again asking voters for their support. However, shifting political winds and changing voter priorities could make for some interesting results. For this guide, we’ll be focusing on three key ridings: Groulx, Deux-Montagnes and Blainville, all of which have traditionally been strongholds for the Coalition Avenir Québec.
To understand the political landscape today, it’s important to look at how the CAQ came to dominate these ridings. Formed by François Legault and Charles Sirois in 2011 before officially becoming a political party later that year, the CAQ positioned itself as an alternative to the province’s traditional Liberal versus Parti Québécois divide. Following its merger with the ADQ in 2012, the party attracted many nationalist and centre-right voters and steadily expanded its reach across Quebec.
That growth culminated in a historic victory in 2018, when the CAQ formed government for the first time. The party followed that up with another decisive win in 2022, cementing its place as Quebec’s dominant political force.
This year, however, the political landscape appears far less predictable. Recent polling and projection models suggest the Parti Québécois has emerged as the province’s frontrunner, while the CAQ, Liberals, Québec solidaire and Conservatives continue battling for support in what could become Quebec’s most unpredictable election in nearly two decades.
Before getting into the individual ridings, here’s a quick look at the major parties competing in the election:
- Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), led by Charles Milliard
- Parti Québécois (PQ), led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
- Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), led by Christine Fréchette
- Québec solidaire (QS), co-led by Ruba Ghazal and Sol Zanetti
- Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ), led by Éric Duhaime
Groulx
The riding of Groulx, which includes Boisbriand, Rosemère and Sainte-Thérèse, has long been considered one of the CAQ’s strongest footholds on the North Shore. However, recent polling and projection models suggest the riding is now far more competitive than many observers expected at the start of the campaign. Current projections show a close race between the CAQ and the Parti Québécois, with the outcome far from certain.
Much of the attention remains focused on Éric Girard. Quebec’s finance minister and one of the CAQ government’s most recognizable figures, Girard is seeking another mandate. He will face Julie Tourangeau for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), Marie-Noëlle Aubertin for Québec solidaire (QS), Marie-Claude Sarrazin for the Parti Québécois (PQ), and Ariane Desrochers for the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ).
While the provincial race appears tighter than it has in years, Girard’s personal profile could still provide the CAQ with an advantage that many of its candidates elsewhere do not enjoy. That is what makes Groulx particularly interesting. The riding offers one of the clearest tests of whether strong local incumbents can withstand the broader challenges currently facing the CAQ.
If the CAQ struggles to hold a riding represented by one of it’s most prominent ministers, it could signal deeper problems for the party across suburban Quebec. Conversely, a Girard victory would suggest that local candidate strength and incumbency remain important factors even as voter preferences shift province-wide.
Although the race remains highly competitive, current projection models continue to give Girard and the CAQ a slight edge. The fact that Groulx is now being described by some forecasters as a PQ-CAQ battleground rather than a safe CAQ seat highlights just how dramatically Quebec’s political landscape has changed heading into the Oct. 5 vote. Current projections give the CAQ roughly a 63 per cent chance of holding the riding, compared with 37 per cent for the PQ.
Deux-Montagnes
Of the three ridings featured here, Deux-Montagnes may be the most difficult to predict.
For the first time in years, voters will head to the polls without seeing long-time MNA Benoit Charette on the ballot. Charette first won the seat in 2008 under the Parti Québécois banner before later joining the CAQ and becoming a prominent member of government. Replacing a politician with that level of local recognition is never easy.
The CAQ officially unveiled Christine Maestracci as its candidate on Aug. 23. She will face Marc Allaire for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), Guillaume Ducharme for Québec solidaire (QS), Linda Vaillant for the Parti Québécois (PQ), and Samuel Lévesque for the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ).
Unlike Groulx, where voters are choosing whether to return a prominent incumbent, Deux-Montagnes is an open-seat race. Historically, those are often the most unpredictable contests because voters are evaluating new candidates rather than an established MNA’s record.
For opposition parties, this represents one of the best opportunities on the North Shore to make a breakthrough. If any of these three ridings is poised to produce a surprise result on election night, Deux-Montagnes may very well be it.
Current projections suggest the Parti Québécois has the upper hand. Depending on the forecasting model, the PQ is given between roughly 73 and 86 per cent odds of capturing the riding. For a constituency long associated with Benoit Charette and the CAQ, a PQ victory would represent a significant political shift on the North Shore.
Blainville
Blainville is shaping up to be one of the North Shore’s most competitive races and an important test of whether the Parti Québécois’ resurgence is translating into support in the suburbs north of Montreal.
The riding, which includes Blainville, Bois-des-Filion and Lorraine, is currently represented by Mario Laframboise of the CAQ. A veteran politician who previously served with the ADQ before joining the CAQ, Laframboise is seeking another mandate this fall.
Joining the race are Sébastien Daoust for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), Nadine Le Gal for the Parti Québécois (PQ), Pascale Quévillon for the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ), and Louis Piette for Québec solidaire (QS).
For the CAQ, Blainville is a riding it cannot afford to lose if it hopes to maintain its dominance on the North Shore. For the PQ, however, the riding presents a significant opportunity. Blainville has historically been receptive to nationalist parties, making it exactly the type of riding Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party will be targeting if it hopes to increase its seat count.
Recent projection models suggest the riding has become a genuine toss-up between the CAQ and the PQ. While Laframboise’s incumbency and local profile remain important assets for the CAQ, the PQ’s province-wide momentum has put Nadine Le Gal in contention for a breakthrough victory.
Current projections give the PQ a modest edge, with most models placing the party’s chances of victory at roughly 59 per cent compared with about 40 per cent for the CAQ. That makes Blainville one of the most important battlegrounds on the North Shore. A PQ victory would provide further evidence that the party’s resurgence is extending beyond its traditional strongholds and into suburban Quebec. Conversely, a CAQ hold would suggest the party remains resilient in key off-island ridings despite its province-wide challenges.
Either way, Blainville is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races on election night.
What to Watch For
While these ridings are all located on the North Shore, each tells a different story.
In Groulx, voters will decide whether Éric Girard’s personal popularity can withstand a weakening CAQ brand and a surprisingly competitive challenge from the Parti Québécois
In Deux-Montagnes, the departure of Benoit Charette creates a rare open-seat contest that now appears to favour the PQ, though the campaign could still shift during its final days.
And in Blainville, the results may help answer a question being asked across Quebec: is the Parti Québécois’ resurgence real, or is it simply a polling phenomenon?
The North Shore has long played an important role in shaping Quebec’s political landscape. After dominating much of the region in 2018 and 2022, the CAQ enters this election facing a very different environment. Meanwhile, the PQ is looking to build on renewed momentum, the Liberals are attempting to reconnect with suburban voters, and the Conservatives are hoping to increase their presence in Quebec politics.
The answers will begin to emerge on Oct. 5. Until then, candidates across Groulx, Deux-Montagnes and Blainville will be making their case to voters one doorstep at a time.
